How Bank Lending Will Be Affected by Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, and Other Factors in 2022

First Citizens Bank subsidiary CIT’s managing director and group head of real estate finance, Chris Niederpruem, discusses how the situation of the economy is impacting bank lending.

Over the past two and a half years, the bank lending environment, like the rest of the commercial real estate industry, has dealt with a number of factors that have turned it on its head, including the pandemic, global inflation, and various sectors’ performance relative to that of their pre-pandemic numbers. To find out more about the situation of bank lending today, Partner Insights met with Chris Niederpruem, managing director and group head of real estate finance at CIT, a division of First Citizens Bank.

Commercial Observer: Last October, we discussed the situation of bank lending for commercial real estate. What have some of the largest changes been since then in this environment?

Chris Niederpruem: The interest rate environment has altered how commercial real estate investors and lenders see their underwriting, which is the most noticeable change from last fall. Debt plays a significant role in how investors decide on deals. It’s a very different scenario than it was six to twelve months ago because of increased interest rates, the prospect of further rate hikes, and the looming threat of a potential recession. Due to the higher cost of debt, commercial real estate acquisitions frequently have less leverage. How that will affect valuations is the unfinished puzzle piece. We haven’t experienced a rate environment like this in a very long time.

How has this affected the level of competition in this sector of the market?

The environment for competition has undoubtedly altered. There was a lot of unmet demand for commercial real estate lending and investing last year as we were coming out of the worst of the pandemic, and a lot of money had been generated. Therefore, the industry experienced a record year for deal volume last year, and it was very competitive. There has been a decrease in deal volume as a result of the changing interest rate environment and some other changes in the capital markets. Both buyers and sellers are transacting considerably more slowly now. Other lenders and investors now have chance as some lenders have backed off or reduced their enthusiasm for lending. Although it remains a competitive market, it is somewhat more measured than in 2021.

How has the landscape of commercial real estate finance been impacted by the rise in inflation?

The cost of materials and labor has gone up, which has affected construction. Additionally, while estimating a property’s future cash flow, you must take increasing expenses into account and then attempt to balance them with growth in the income or rental side. How much of the markets where rents have historically increased still have growth? For instance, during the past year, rents for multifamily units have increased by double digits in some southeast cities. How much growth is still possible given the impact of inflation on the expense side? Many lenders and investors have been obliged to think more carefully about those issues.

Are there any current national or international developments that, in addition to inflation, have an impact on the financing landscape?

The capital markets have been unstable due to a variety of factors, such as global political unpredictability, rising interest rates, and potential future recessions. These factors have disrupted the capital markets, posing difficulties for lenders who self-finance. Due to this, they are no longer as willing or able to lend as they were in 2019 and 2021. That presents a barrier for certain lenders and an opportunity for others (I’ll skip 2020 for obvious reasons).

Has the demand for specific lending products changed at all during this?

Yes. The most obvious is that investors are increasingly looking for financing options with longer terms and more fixed rates than in the past. In a situation when interest rates are rising so quickly, this shift is common. That’s what we’ve observed, and most lenders, I believe, have noticed an increase in requests for that kind of product.

Our Orange County commercial real estate brokers will help you every step of the way in finding the right commercial investment property, contact us for details.

You’ve probably heard of the three-card monte, a confidence game where participants are duped into placing a wager on the premise that they can pick out the “money card” from a group of three face-down playing cards.

Now comes the “three-round burst,” a tactic described in a recent Federal Trade Commission case in which a purported credit repair business disputes all negative items in a person’s credit records not once, not twice, but three times until it all but bullies the credit agency into finally caving in to the request to delete the in question items.

According to Point Perspective, a risk management business, this “credit washing” scam is common in the auto financing industry. It is currently permeating the mortgage industry, and if it hasn’t already, it will probably move into the multifamily market.

In order to put an end to what it claimed was a dishonest credit repair scheme that claimed it could repair consumers’ credit, the FTC won an injunction against Turbo Solutions, which also goes by the name Alex Miller Credit Repair, and Miller himself in April. Of course, it frequently fell short.

The company stated that “advanced disputing” could eliminate negative information from people’s credit records, but the FTC accuses Turbo and Miller of engaging in credit washing, which is a methodical approach to disputing unfavorable tradelines on false pretenses. Filing an affidavit claiming you are a victim of identity theft is one way to make a false claim.

According to the FTC, the business would dispute tradelines by filing identity theft allegations on IdentityTheft.gov, often with the consent of the customer.

A credit reporting agency has the right to refuse to delete negative information from its files if it believes that an identity theft report was made inadvertently. But Miller and his businesses persisted despite this.

Multifamily Risk

Landlords and property management companies should be aware of additional scams kinds.Point Perspective, a company that uses artificial intelligence to detect fraud, claims to have found more than 6,700 fictitious employers that are connected to more than $1.7 billion in financing requests in the car industry alone. The risk management firm also claims that each week it uncovers “up to 100 new bogus employers.”

These problems are related to phony websites and forged pay stubs, and they are frequently used to persuade lenders to call phony phone lines in order to confirm a candidate’s fictitious employer.

The risk management firm further notes that some of the applicants who used fictitious employers also utilized fictitious credit reports, sometimes known as synthetic identities.

As one might anticipate, businesses are at risk when applicants present fraudulent credentials. They have a default rate of 40% to 100% in the auto industry. This can prevent landlords in the apartment industry from receiving rent payments and might encourage crime in certain neighborhoods.

In a statement announcing the Turbo/Miller order, Samuel Levine, the director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, stated that “IdentifyTheft.gov is a resource for consumers, not scammers.” “Those who abuse this resource by filing fake reports can expect to hear from us.”

The Justice Department also committed to stopping credit repair companies from participating in this sort of illegal behavior by using “all tools” at their disposal.

However, it would be prudent for multifamily interests to pay attention. Property managers should take whatever measures they think necessary to protect themselves against these kinds of challenges, rather than waiting for an attack. It could be expensive to ignore something.

We are ready to assist investors with Santa Ana multifamily properties. For questions about Commercial Property Management, contact your Orange County commercial real estate advisors at SVN Vanguard.

The approach, according to First American Financial Corporation, would be to slow asset development.

First American Financial Corporation research suggests that cap rates may finally begin to regain some of their worth.

With regard to the first quarter of 2022, the company’s potential capitalization rate (PCR) model “estimates capitalization rates based on the historical relationship between interest rates, rental income, current occupancy rates, the amount of commercial mortgage debt in the economy, and recent property price trends.”

As the corporation pointed out, supply chain problems brought on by the epidemic have prevented inflation from being the “transient” phenomenon that the Federal Reserve had projected it would be. The Federal Reserve eventually began tightening monetary policy, most recently increasing its benchmark interest rates by 75 basis points, the biggest one-time increase since 1994.

The 10-year Treasury note saw a spike as a result, rising from around 1.7 percent in early January 2022 to a high of 3.48 percent at the time of the rate hike. Yesterday’s 10-year closing rate was 2.97 percent. First American predicts that the 10-year yield would likely increase due to further anticipated quantitative tightening—the Fed lets bonds it owns mature and then removes them from its balance sheet, eliminating the extra money it had injected into the economy.

Investors utilize the 10-year as a relatively risk-free method of investing and to assess the worth of riskier investments, such as commercial real estate. For an investment to be considered worthwhile of the risk, it must now yield higher returns.

According to Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, “since capitalization (cap) rates are a measure of return on an asset, higher “risk-free” rates mean sellers will need to lower their price expectations or increase cash flow, if that’s an option, to entice buyers seeking competitive yields, which should also push up cap rates.

Although cap rates are currently close to record lows, the PCR model predicts that cap rates will eventually rise due to slower price increases. However, not every form of CRE property is in the same situation. Snyder noted,” “Multifamily and industrial assets set first-quarter price growth records, increasing at a faster rate than any other first quarter in the past 20 years, while office and retail assets were a drag on overall CRE price growth in the first quarter. However, a record amount of industrial square footage is currently under construction and expected to come to market later this year, which may slow price growth for industrial assets and put further upward pressure on the potential cap rate as the year progresses. ”

First American stated in April that cap rates were set to decline further at the time, but circumstances have since changed.

Our Orange County commercial real estate brokers will help you every step of the way in finding the right commercial investment property, contact us for details.

The movement for multifamily rent regulation has gained momentum nationwide over the past few years, and the pandemic has increased political and popular support for tenant safety. The effects that these policies will have on their business and their capacity to create housing have been vocally expressed by multifamily owners as a source of concern.

Owners are actively avoiding markets with rent limits or seriously considering leaving markets that enact these rules, according to a report by the National Multifamily Housing Council from earlier this year.

However, according to industry experts who spoke with Bisnow, California’s state and local rent control and limit regulations haven’t had a significant influence on multifamily financing. However, some projects, like value-add deals, have become more challenging to complete as a result of these and other laws affecting multifamily developments, particularly the still-in-effect eviction ban in Los Angeles.

Across the country, rent control is becoming more prevalent. In 2021, St. Paul, Minnesota, approved a 3 percent rent cap. According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, legislation that might establish rent restrictions has been proposed in at least a dozen states. The legislation would forbid landlords from raising rents by a percentage more than 2% to 10%. According to the WSJ, nationwide rent increases since the start of the pandemic have averaged 18%. According to Insider, the states with cities that are considering similar restrictions are diverse in terms of geography, demographics, and ideologies. They include Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New York, Washington, and Massachusetts.

In 2019, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed AB 1482, which places a 10-year cap on how much landlords can raise rent in a sizable number of buildings throughout the state. California has had rent regulations in various forms for decades. Rent increases of more than 5% plus inflation per year are prohibited for multifamily landlords, as well as for owners of condominiums and single-family houses who are 16 years of age or older. According to the statute, landlords are also required to give “just cause” for evictions.

According to Doug Perry, senior vice president of sales at Archwest Capital, the law didn’t have the significant effect that many in the CRE industry had hoped.

The landscape didn’t shift overnight, according to Perry, whose company is a direct commercial lender with a nationwide concentration on multifamily and mixed-use properties. Rent control rules haven’t affected the way we underwrite loans, but they have made some situations a little more difficult.

For instance, it could be more challenging to complete a value-add project that entails purchasing a property with a lot of unfinished maintenance, upgrading it, and then boosting the rent.

According to Perry, “Those projects don’t get done as much because they can’t be done from a compliance standpoint with the rent control laws.”

There are workarounds that can be useful, such as “cash for keys,” in which a renter is given a lump sum in exchange for leaving a rental property. Most of the time, the rent for the apartment can be changed to reflect market rates. However, it can cost a lot of money to evict residents, and that money isn’t going toward the main goal of these projects, which is to improve the building so that the apartments can draw higher-paying renters.

According to Perry, “Sometimes the cost of doing that drives the cost of the whole project to the point that it’s just not a profitable project, and it doesn’t make sense.”

The impact of municipal rent control laws, as opposed to state-level ones, may be greater for smaller investors and individual owners who have investments in areas with such laws, according to Perry, but this is only a problem for specific projects and not a general problem.

Value-add deals may take longer to complete if there are eviction moratoria, like the one that is still in place in Los Angeles.

Shahin Yazdi, partner and managing director of George Smith Partners, which arranges loans for CRE borrowers nationwide, said that it is “simply not as realistic” for the borrower to expect to be able to turn an entire building when there is an eviction moratorium and you can’t perform no-cause evictions.

Instead, it is necessary to diminish expectations, either that it will take longer to empty the building or that it won’t be empty enough. This means that the transactions must make financial sense even if only a portion of the building—say, half or a third—is made accessible to new, wealthier tenants. But in other situations, the resilience of multifamily during the epidemic has made this conceivable.

Regarding Los Angeles and its current eviction moratorium, Yazdi noted, “Multifamily continues to be a strong performing asset, even with people not paying. The foreclosure rates didn’t skyrocket. Landlords, maybe they did some deferred payments, but they continue to make their mortgage payments, so it’s a great asset class for lenders.”

Despite the optimistic response from the lender side, a study released in January 2022 by the National Multifamily Housing Council revealed that efforts to enact rent control are having an impact across the country, not just in California.

The study asked 78 CEOs and senior executives at national “apartment-related firms” if the growing number of areas that had implemented, strengthened, or were considering rent control or rent ceilings had an impact on development and investment decisions. According to 32% of respondents, people who practice rent control already shun those markets, and 26% indicated they had reduced their investment in those markets as a result of the local rent control policies.

But nearly as many respondents — 23% — said they don’t plan to change anything about their investments or developments in these areas despite rent control.

Despite the growing popularity of rent control pushes across the country, California seems to stick out among the crowd. Respondents to the NMHC survey were asked to list markets they are specifically avoiding, either due to existing rent control measures or the threat of new policy adoption. Of the 31 respondents who answered this question, 55% indicated specific markets in California or the state as a whole, NMHC said.

According to Jim Lapides, vice president of strategic communications for the National Multifamily Housing Council, “California is a uniquely difficult place to operate” because of the state’s rent control laws as well as the laws that local governments have either approved or are preparing to pass. It adds up for every city that enacts new rent control legislation and every moratorium that is still in place.

Despite these obstacles, investing there is still profitable, according to Lapides, and investors will continue to do so. According to a year-end analysis by CBRE, which used data from Real Capital Analytics, the greater Los Angeles region attracted $58.8B in investment expenditures in 2021, making it the biggest beneficiary of those funds. With nearly $35B in tourism, the Bay Area placed fourth. The statistics showed that apartments were the asset class that attracted the greatest investment in the East Bay and greater LA. (Offices in San Francisco received the most investment.)

According to Lapides, “California is always going to be an attractive market — there’s tens of millions of people that live there, there are huge markets, it’s important for the industry. But this trajectory that they’ve been on is really going to hurt them.”

Perry, by comparison, sees a pattern of adaptation to the hurdles that California has created so far.

“The reality is rent control is here, statewide, it’s been here for a while, and we’ve learned to live with it, adapt to it, and make it work both from a lending standpoint and from a borrower standpoint,” Perry said.

Our Orange County commercial real estate brokers will help you every step of the way in finding the right multi-family property, contact us for details.

CRE loans on bank balance sheets increased significantly.

On July 6th, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its June meeting were made public, and they contained some fascinating information for the real estate sector.

The first was a direct reference to bank lending for commercial real estate:

“Commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans on banks’ balance sheets expanded at a rapid pace in April and May. Issuance of both agency and non-agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) stepped down slightly in May from its strong pace earlier in the year. Small business loan originations through April were in line with pre-pandemic levels and indicated that credit appeared to be available.”

For a majority of borrowers, residential mortgage credit was “widely available” through the month of May, however independent of the Fed’s observations, persistently increasing rates are discouraging most borrowers. According to information from the Mortgage Bankers Association that Trading Economics has compiled since January, there have been twice as many weeks in which the number of mortgage applications fell in contrast to weeks in which numbers of mortgage applications showed increasing numbers.

The minutes stated that “While refinance volumes continued trending lower in April and May amid higher mortgage rates, outstanding balances of home equity lines of credit at commercial banks posted the first significant increase in more than a decade, likely reflecting a substitution by homeowners away from cash-out refinances.” Bank interest rates for C&I and CRE loans have climbed, and yields on non-financial business bonds are far above pre-COVID levels.

According to Alex Killick, managing director at CWCapital, “Commercial real estate has historically been a hedge against inflation, and we continue to see sturdy rent growth in the multifamily and hotel sectors.” That being said, Killick noted that cost inflation, notably for staffing and insurance, is impacting NOI margins, particularly on office and retail properties where tenants are on long-term fixed rent leases with escalations of 2% to 3% annually, below the rate of expense inflation.

Killick also states, based on Fed notes and plateauing trends of some commodity prices, looming fixed rate loan maturities in 2023 and 2024 represent “the biggest near-term risk in CMBS,” with projected refinancing charges between 1 and 2 percentage points higher than current rates. Where NOI has also been influenced by rising expenses, may go through a level of distress that is greater than anything we haven’t experienced prior to the 2020 COVID default wave,” he adds.

Al Lord, CEO of Lexerd Capital Management, which largely focuses on multifamily – what he claims is a present bright spot. Lord says interest rate increases would negatively influence financing costs of commercial real estate projects and on the margin, we anticipate some projects to be canceled. The demand for rental housing is so robust that, despite increases in the cost of financing MF real estate projects, this asset class is predicted to do well for investors through at least 2023.

Despite a seemingly sunny outlook in the apartment market, prudence is advised, according to Dave Nelson, chief investment officer of the multifamily-focused investment firm Hamilton Zanze. Nelson tells GlobeSt.com that while apartment fundamentals are still solid, apartment returns are being threatened. “The large difference between buyers and sellers is reducing but not completely, and the gap will increase as the Fed minutes hint at another rate hike. This is not a moment to be alarmed, but rather to assess robust regional market fundamentals with large job drivers and exercise caution when making purchases.

The SVN Vanguard team can help with your commercial real estate needs. We can help you find the ideal commercial property for sale or lease. Interested in discussing a sale-leaseback? Contact us.

Generally speaking, real estate has generated profits during most recessions.

According to one market observer, investors “shouldn’t be concerned of an oncoming recession” and instead should think about the economic outlook over the next 3, 5, and 10 years.

Because there are so many different economic crosscurrents at play, it’s difficult to predict whether and when the next recession will occur. According to John Chang of Marcus & Millichap, these factors make it very hard to anticipate a recession, and even while “the risks are mounting,” a recession is not a given.

On the one hand, according to Chang, job growth is strong, with 488,000 new positions added each month on average this year. 3.6 percent is the current unemployment rate, and 5.2 percent is a significant pay growth rate. Additionally, despite recent stagnation in retail sales, they are still growing by almost 8%.

According to Chang, ” “Those are all positive economic readings pointing to a steady growth outlook.” Chang also notes that on the other hand, we have rising interest rates, a declining stock market, a record-high inflation rate of 8.5 percent, and declining confidence levels. There is in many respects a fear element at play that can force individuals to cut back on their spending and bring about a recession.

Therefore, is it really important if the US experiences a recession? Chang says it depends on the situation.

Chang claims that the current situation is unlikely to experience the liquidity shortage that the Great Financial Crisis did, which limited real estate investment. Although there are many different reasons and repercussions for recessions, Chang believes the US is likely to see one similar to that of the 1981 or 1990 downturns. Strong growth and rising inflation in the years before both of these periods influenced the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively, as we are seeing today. Chang observed significant variation among property types, with apartments, for example, holding up well in the 1980s and dipping mildly negative in 1991 – though “nothing like the hit the sector took in 2009,” he says. Yields softened in both recessions, but not to the extent of the decline in 2009.

The location and asset will determine a large portion of the risk to CRE investors. However, according to Chang, “in general, real estate has generated good returns through most recessions.” “And even when returns fell, there was typically strong, steady growth in its wake. Therefore, yes, economic downturns do affect commercial real estate, but not nearly as much as we may think.

We are ready to assist investors with Santa Ana commercial properties. For questions about Commercial Property Management, contact your Orange County commercial real estate advisors at SVN Vanguard.

1. FED POLICY MEETING

At its latest policy meeting on June 15th, the FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 75 bps to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, its steepest rate hike since 1994. The move follows a May inflation rate of 8.5%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell during the week out of fears that an increasingly aggressive Fed could tip the US economy into recession.
The most recent Summary of Economic Projections forecasts a 3.4% year-end Fed-funds rate, a 150 bps increase from the March-meeting forecast. Officials also cut their 2022 GDP growth outlook to 1.7% from 2.8% in March. Officials see inflation easing in 2023, with an average forecast of 2.7% core PCE, but this forecast has remained unchanged since the initial March rate hike.
The stock market initially rose after the policy release but fell later in the week as pessimism around tightening’s impact on growth rattled investor sentiment. The S&P 500 finished up 0.2% on Friday but fell 5.8% over the week.

2. MSCI REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS

The US National All-Property Price Index, which produces a weighted measure of commercial real estate prices, rose by 18.6% over the year ending May 2022, according to MSCI Real Capital Analytics (MSCI RCA). Month-over-month, prices rose 1.1%, which would convert to a 9.7% annualized growth rate— the fastest observed growth rate in the past four months.
Industrial retained the accolade of the sector seeing the fastest annual rise, climbing by 28.6% year-over-year. Industrial also saw the most rapid month-over-month appreciation in May, rising 1.3% (24.4% annualized growth rate).
Apartment prices were close behind, growing 23.3% year-over-year. Month-over-month, apartment prices rose by about 1.5% in May (19.2% annualized growth rate)
Retail and Office asset prices are up 18.8% and 12.2% year-over-year, respectively. Notably, Central Business District Office prices are outpacing Suburban Office prices, measured both year-over-year (13.4% vs. 10.5%) and month-over-month (0.9% vs. 0.6%).

3. APARTMENT INVESTMENT MARKET INDEX

Freddie Mac’s Apartment Investment Market Index (AIMI) fell for the second consecutive quarter, registering a 5.3% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q1 2022. AIMI is down -6.1% from Q1 2021.
While net operating incomes (NOI) have continued to rise, an increase in mortgage rates and property prices have offset NOI’s impact. NOI is up 19.8% year-over-year, while property prices and mortgages are up 21.1% and 41 basis points, respectively, over the same period
AIMI fell in all 25 tracked metros, but each metro also recorded increases in NOI from Q4 2021. NOI growth was 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, with the fastest growth in Miami, which grew 5.6% from Q4 2021. Portland grew the slowest, at just 0.9%.
Mortgage rates grew 29 bps from the previous quarter, its most significant single quarter gain since Q2 2018. Mortgage rates are 41 bps above their average one year ago.

4. GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INDEX

According to the New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), global supply chain pressures fell in May. Still, supply chain pressures remain at historically high levels. The index fell from 3.4 in April to 2.9 in May. The index value represents how many standard deviations from the historical mean current supply chain conditions reside.
Most GSCPI components—which include commonly used metrics such as the Baltic Dry Index, the Harper Index, airfreight cost indices, and sub-components of the Purchasing Managers’ Index— decreased.
The recent movement in the GSCPI signals a potential stabilization of global supply chain pressures at
historically high levels.

5. CONSUMERS CUT BACK ON DINING

A recent study by Morning Consult reports that 53% of adults in the US have adjusted their eating and drinking spending because of high inflation. 72% of consumers say that they have intentionally taken steps to save money due to inflationary pressures.
In addition to the price inflation seen at restaurants and eating establishments, the CPI sub-component measuring food at home is up 11.9% over the past year, adding pressure to consumers’ wallets.
Regionally, 56% of consumers in the Midwest report changing spending behavior due to inflation. The South was a close second with 55% of consumers changing spending behavior, while the West saw 53% of consumers adjusting spending. The Northeast saw a significantly less impact, with 46% of consumers adjusting spending habits.
Of respondents that say they have made adjustments, 8-in-10 report eating at restaurants less often, while 3-in-4 report going to bars left often.
Women were 13 percent more likely than men to have adapted their spending.

6. NAIOP OFFICE SPACE DEMAND FORECAST

According to NAIOP, the US office market absorbed 21.6 million square feet of supply over the final quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Still, vacancy rates rose for the tenth consecutive quarter, though NAIOP notes that a wave of new product deliveries is at least partially to blame.
For the year, net absorption totaled -23.7 million square feet, slightly better than the -30.9 million that NAIOP had forecasted. Further, 2021’s net absorption total was an improvement from 2020’s total of -73.3 million square feet.
NAIOP forecasts that net office space absorption will total 46.9 million square feet between Q2 2022 and the end of the year, reflecting slowing, though still growing, economic growth and an uptick in
office space utilization.

7. INDEPENDENT LANDLORD RENTAL PERFORMANCE

Research by Chandan Economics indicates that the on-time collection rate for independently operated residential properties improved by 129 bps between May and June, rising to 81.5%. May’s month-end ontime payment rate was revised up 214 basis points (bps) from the preliminary estimate of 80.2%.
Gateway markets have maintained higher on-time payment rates than units located elsewhere for sixconsecutive months through June 2022. The June on-time rate for Gateway markets stands at 83.0%, while non-gateway markets registered an on-time rate of 81.3%.
Sun Belt rentals have underperformed the rest of the US for three consecutive months, registering a gap of 65 bps in June 2022. The Sun Belt’s growing success has seen some affordability issues arise, as markets re-price more quickly than some existing residents can handle.
2-4 Family rentals maintained the highest on-time payment rate of all sub-property types in June, coming in at 82.0%.
Mid-priced rentals ($1,500-$2,499) continue to outperform all other price points, recording an on-time rent payment rate of 85.0% in June. Units with monthly rents below $1,000 continue to perform the worst, with just 80% paying on time.

8. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY

The National Federation of Independent Businesses Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.1 points to 93.1 in May, a nearly five-decade low for the index.
A net negative 54% of owners expect business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future expectations have now fallen consecutively since January.
28% of respondents report inflation as their more pressing issue for operating their businesses, dropping four points from April. A net 72% of owners are raising prices, two percentage points from April.
51% of owners reported job openings they could not fill, rising from April. Meanwhile, a net positive 46% of owners reported raising compensation, a three-percentage point drop from April.
39% of owners cite supply chain issues as a significant hindrance to their business, up three percentage points from April. A separate 31% report a moderate impact from supply chain issues, while 22% report a mild one. Only 8% of owners say there is no impact from supply chain disruptions on their business.

9. CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which boils down 85 separate indicators of national economic growth into a single index, stood at 0.01 in May, down from 0.4 in April.
Two of the four major categories of the index—personal consumption and housing (1) and production and income (2), made negative contributions during the month as activity contracted. The other two categories, employment, unemployment, and hours (1) and sales, orders, and inventories (2), increased activity.
Within production and income, manufacturing production fell 0.1% in May after a 0.8% increase in April.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.08 to the CFNAI this month, up slightly from April. Personal consumption and housing contributed a -0.11 decrease to the CFNAI to –0.11 in May, down from +0.10 in April.

10. CMBS DELINQUENCIES

New reporting from Real Page shows retention rates are in line with the US average. Through Q1 2022, the US and the Southeast saw average retention rates of 58.5%.
Historically, retention rates in the Southeast have trended consistently below the national average, and the current convergence is a departure from pre-pandemic patterns.
Lower historical Southeast retention rates were primarily attributed to consistently lower regional apartment occupancy rates. Notably, retention rates have converged even as national occupancy rates have risen above levels observed in the Southeast.

SUMMARY OF SOURCES

(1) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220615a.htm
(2) https://www.msci.com/our-solutions/real-assets/real-capital-analytics
(3) https://mf.freddiemac.com/aimi/#:~:text=The%20Freddie%20Mac%20Multifamily%20Apartment,nationally%2C%20has%20changed%20over%20time
(4) https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview
(5) https://morningconsult.com/2022/06/21/inflation-has-consumers-cutting-back-on-dining-andmeat/
(6) https://www.naiop.org/Research-and-Publications/Reports/Office-Space-Demand-Forecast-2Q22
(7) https://www.chandan.com/independentlandlordrentalreport
(8) https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
(9) https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data#:~:text=The%20Chicago%20 Fed%20National%20Activity,end%20of%20each%20calendar%20month
(10) https://www.realpage.com/analytics/southeast-apartment-retention-trending-closer-nationalnorm/

Stephanie Suarez is an Administrative Assistant at SVN Vanguard. Stephanie was born and raised in Orange County, CA. She received her AA degree from Santa Ana College and is currently working on a degree in Communications at Cal State University – Fullerton.

Stephanie has worked in property management since 2017 and is excited to be gaining more knowledge in the industry. In her free time, Stephanie enjoys books, a nice of tea, a good movie, and a hearty laugh.

1. MSCI REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS CPPI

The US National All-Property Price Index, which produces a weighted measure of commercial real estate prices, rose by 17.9% over the year ending April 2022, according to MSCI Real Capital Analytics (MSCI RCA). Month-over-month, prices rose 0.5%, which would convert to a 6.3% annualized growth rate — a sign that some price growth momentum is slowing.
Industrial properties experienced the fastest annual rise in prices among the major property sectors, climbing by 26.0% year-over-year. Industrial also saw the fastest month-over-month appreciation in April, rising 1.3% (17.0% annualized growth rate).
Apartment prices were close behind, growing 23.0% year-over-year. Month-over-month, apartment prices also grew by about 1.3% in April (16.6% annualized growth rate)
Retail and Office asset prices are up 18.4% and 11.8% year-over-year, respectively. The only sub-index in the MSCI reporting to see an increase in its year-over-year growth rate for April was Central Business District Office properties (12.3%).

2. SENIOR LOAN OFFICER OPINION SURVEY

The Federal Reserve’s April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which was conducted over the first quarter of 2022, indicates that lenders are increasingly pulling on the reins as borrower demand has lessened.
For commercial properties, an equal number of lenders report tightening and loosening underwriting standards, though this is a shift of 14.5 percentage points toward tightening compared to the previous quarter. A net 3.1% of respondents saw demand fall for commercial loans over the first quarter — a shift of 16.3 percentage points from the prior quarter when a net 13.2% reported rising demand.
For Multifamily, a net 9.2% of respondents still reported loosening underwriting standards, though this is a 14.0 percentage point shift down from the end of 2021. For Multifamily borrower demand, 18.5% of lenders reported seeing growing borrower appetites, declining from 37.7% in the prior survey.

3. US INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Prologis’ newly produced “True Months of Supply (TMS)” metric shows that the US Industrial Market currently has a record-low 16-months of supply, according to data tracked across 30 US metros.
According to Prologis, before 2021, the Industrial market had never sunk below 32 months of supply. Anything under 50 months of supply is generally considered a signal of rent growth throughout the market.
Analysts predict that TMS will average 20 months of supply in 2022 with projected rent growth of 22% over the same period. Vacancy rates are expected to hold at a record low of 3.3%.
Prologis states that the traditional Industrial Supply metric did not accurately reflect the rate of vacancies in the development pipeline, a large portion of which tends to be pre-leased, requiring an adjustment in how supply is calculated.

4. WEF GLOBAL OUTLOOK

The World Economic Forum (WEF), which recently met in Davos, Switzerland for its annual conference, also released its quarterly economic outlook, where surveyed economists moderated their expectation of strong economic growth and normalized inflation.
The US remains poised to have one of the better economic rebounds in 2022. 92% of WEF’s Chief Economist Survey respondents see US activity being either moderate or strong in 2022 despite recent uncertainty. Only South Asia and East Asia/Pacific registered higher scores in this regard, capturing 96% and 95% of responses, respectively.
When polled on inflation, respondents see the 2022 outlook to be most challenging for Latin America and the US, with 41% and 38%, respectively, expecting significantly higher inflationary pressures throughout the rest of the year.
Real wages are also expected to decline, with over two-thirds of respondents expecting that the average real wage will reduce significantly across advanced economies.

5. HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell from 77 to 69 in May. All major subcomponents of the index — current single-family home sales, projections of single-family home sales over the next six months, and current traffic of prospective buyers — posted month-over-month declines.
Regionally, sentiment in the Northeast and South continues to outpace the West and Midwest. However, the Northeast was the only region to see sentiment increase from April. Notably, sentiment in the Northeast consistently underperformed the South and West regions throughout most of 2021. As of May, the Northeast and South Regional HMIs are at the same level.
New residential construction data from the Census Bureau this month shows that residential permits, starts, and completions all fell from March to April. The HMI historically tracks closely to these data.

6. INDEPENDENT LANDLORD RENTAL PERFORMANCE

Research by Chandan Economics indicates that the on-time collection rate for independently operated residential properties declined by 111 basis points between April and May, falling to 78.1%. April’s month-end on-time payment rate was revised down 24 basis points (bps) from the preliminary estimate to 79.2%.
Gateway markets have maintained higher on-time payment rates than units located elsewhere for five consecutive months through May 2022. The May on-time rate for Gateway markets stands at 80.2%.
Sun Belt rentals underperformed the rest of the US by 31 bps in April and 188 bps in May. As the region sees growing success, a concern arises that Sun Belt markets are re-pricing more quickly than some existing residents can handle.
2-4 Family rentals maintained the highest on-time payment rate of all sub-property types in May, coming in at 81.1%.
Mid-priced rentals ($2,000-$2,499) continue to outperform all other price points, recording an on-time payment rate of 83.8%. Units with monthly rents below $1,000 performed the worst.

7. THE STATE OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BUILDING OPERATIONS

A survey of Commercial Real Estate professionals conducted by the firm Building Engines found that a large majority of CRE professionals saw their portfolios either increase or remain the same in 2021 relative to 2020. Further, most expect their tenants to reoccupy offices by summer 2022 (the reoccupation question was posed before the Omicron variant outbreak).
According to respondents, the most common office tenant request was faster responses to work orders and maintenance requests (50%) (those surveyed could submit up to 3 answers for the question, so the total does not equal 100%). Enhanced health and safety protocols came in second (45%), and updates to tenant amenities were third (38%).
67% of respondents believe that their tenants plan to use a hybrid work model.

8. RETAIL TRADE/REBOOK INDEX

Seasonally adjusted US retail and foodservice sales were $677.7 billion in April, a 0.9% increase from March and an 8.2% increase above April 2021’s level.
Retail trade sales rose 0.7% from March to April and are up 6.7% from April 2021. Gas stations are up 36.9% year-over-year, while food and drinking places saw a 19.8% year-over-year increase.
The May 21st release of the weekly Redbook Index, a sales-weighted measure of year-over-year same-store sales growth among US retailers, increased by 11.4% over the same week in 2021. Year-over-year growth in the Redbook Index reached an all-time high during the Black Friday/Cyber Monday week in November 2021.

9. JOBLESS CLAIMS

After beginning to climb from its pandemic floor throughout April and early May, initial jobless claims fell during the week ending May 21st, an encouraging sign as markets and policymakers brace for the possibility of an impending US recession.
Initial jobless claims stood at 210,000 according to the Department of Labor’s latest figures, a decline of 8,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average for initial claims rose by roughly 7,000 to 206,750, mainly reflecting the consecutive increases registered earlier in the month.
Continued unemployment claims, for which the latest data is available through May 14th, ticked up by 31,000 from the week before, landing at 1.34 million. However, last week’s metric was the lowest on record, reflecting both the lag that continued claims have compared to initial claims and the overall favorable position of today’s labor market despite increased economic uncertainty.

10. FED MEETING MINUTES

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting show that the FOMC is prepared to conduct additional 50 basis point hikes in the future if needed to re-anchor inflation expectations, a divergence from what most market participants expect. Fed futures edged higher following the release.
Additionally, the median Desk survey response indicates another 125 basis points of increase by the middle of next year, raising the median target range to 3.31%, much higher than predicted in previous surveys.
Notably, the committee stated that they might move past having a “neutral” policy stance and into a “restrictive” one. While vague in detail, it is a clear signal that the Fed has moved into an increasingly aggressive approach to taming inflation.

SUMMARY OF SOURCES

(1) https://www.msci.com/our-solutions/real-assets/real-capital-analytics
(2) https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202204-charts-data.htm
(3) https://www.globest.com/2022/05/13/prologis-us-industrial-market-has-record-low-16-monthsupply/
(4) https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2022.pdf
(5) https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-marketindex
(5) https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
(6) https://www.chandan.com/independentlandlordrentalreport
(7) https://www.buildingengines.com/resources/report/the-state-of-commercial-real-estatebuilding-
operations-for-2022/
(8) https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
(8) http://www.redbookresearch.com/
(9) https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
(10) https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220126.htm

1. GDP

Real GDP decreased by an annualized 1.4% during Q1 2022, down from Q4 2021’s revised figure of 6.9%. This is the first quarterly contraction in US economic growth since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q2 2020.
Increased COVID-19 cases due to the Omicron variant continued to disrupt economic activity while government assistance programs, including small business loans, grants to state and local governments, and payments to households, continued to sunset.
Decreases in motor vehicle sales and retail trade contributed the most to a broader decrease in private inventory investment. Exports declined, largely due to a decrease in sales of nondurable goods, but this was partially offset by an increase in financial serves and other business services. Imports rose over the quarter.
Personal consumption expenditures rose, largely reflecting a rise in health care and other services, while goods registered a decline. Within goods, nondurable goods, particularly gasoline and other energy-related items, declined. On the other hand, durable goods, led by Motor Vehicles and parts, as well as nonresidential fixed investment, increased.

2. ULI SPRING ECONOMIC FORECAST

The Urban Land Institute forecasts strong economic and employment growth through the end of the year, according to its latest Real Estate Economic Forecast.
The report, released several days before the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Q1 2022 GDP update, predicts the economy returning to pre-pandemic growth by 2024. In their analysis, ULI notes an expectation that commercial real estate transaction volume will moderate somewhat in the coming years, declining from a record $846 billion in transactions in 2021 to $800 billion in 2022. Their forecast predicts volume to fall to $725 billion in 2023 before rising again to $750 billion in 2024.
After experiencing price growth of 19.5% in 2021, the report projects a moderation in price increases but still with significant growth, forecasting a 10% average increase in 2022 before falling to 6.0% and 5.9% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The report does not expect a significant change in vacancy rates over the forecast period due to an expectation that demand will remain strong amid historically tight inventory.

3. RECESSION RISKS

Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank became the first major bank to forecast a coming US recession— largely based on concerns that the Federal Reserve may not be able to achieve a “soft landing” for monetary policy, potentially pushing the economy into a recession.
Persistent inflation has forced the Fed’s hand to try and aggressively get a handle on price stability From the view of Deutsche Bank economists, “It is now clear that price stability…is likely to only be achieved through a restrictive monetary policy stance that meaningfully dents demand.”
Their forecast predicts a “mild” US recession that would last just a couple of quarters with the potential to push the unemployment rate up to 5%. The bank’s economists base this on a consensus that the Fed could raise its policy rate as high as 3.5% to cool price increases that they see extending into next year— a move that could deliver a blow to consumer demand.

4. APARTMENT SECTOR UPDATE

According to Real Capital Analytics (RCA), Apartment cap rates are averaging 4.7% through Q1 2022 holding steady since Q3 2021.
Both subsectors that RCA tracks, Garden and Mid/Highrise Apartments, saw cap rates compress over the past four quarters, declining by 29 and 26 basis points, respectively.
Apartment transaction volumes fell to $62.96 billion in Q1 2022 after a record-breaking performance in Q4 2021, where transactions reached $161.63 billion. Still, volume is up 4.17% year-over-year.
Apartment unit valuations through Q1 2022 are down -2.28% quarter-over-quarter but remain up by 20.33% from one year ago.

5. OFFICE SECTOR UPDATE

According to Real Capital Analytics, Office sector cap rates have ticked up in recent months but remain near all-time lows, experiencing a slight increase from 6.2% to 6.3% in Q1 2022. Office cap rates are down by 20 bps year-over-year.
Cap rates for Suburban Office assets compressed by 40 basis points to 6.3% between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022. Office assets in Central Business Districts (CBD) saw cap rates rise by 80 bps to 5.9% from the previous quarter and are up 60 basis points from one year ago.
Office sector transaction volumes fell steeply in Q1 2022, declining by 37.3% to $35 billion. Both Suburban and CBD Office saw transactions fall by 35% or more.
Office sector valuations measured on a per square foot basis remained relatively unchanged, rising from $290 per square foot to $293 per square foot from the previous quarter. They are up 43.7% year over year.

6. RETAIL SECTOR UPDATE

According to Real Capital Analytics (RCA), Retail sector cap rates have remained steady over the past several quarters, charting in at 6.4% between Q3 2021 and Q1 2022. Retail cap rates are down by 20 basis points from Q1 2021.
Retail shops saw cap rates drop by 10 basis points from the previous quarter and are down 30 basis points from one year ago. Meanwhile, retail centers saw cap rates rise by 20 basis points from the previous quarter and remain unchanged from one year ago.
After reaching record transaction volumes (since RCA began tracking in 2001) in Q4 2021, the Retail sector saw volumes sink by 49.4% to $18.6 billion in Q1 2022. Still, retail transactions are more than double their Q1 2021 volume.
Measured on a per square foot basis, asset prices, on average, are down by 2.0% quarter-over-quarter but remain up by 16.4% year-over-year.

7. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR UPDATE

According to Real Capital Analytics, Industrial sector cap rates rose by 30 basis points from the previous quarter to 5.8% but just a tick up from one year ago, when cap rates stood at 5.7%.
Flex Industrial assets have posted the largest annual cap rate rise through Q1 2022, climbing by 30 basis points from one year ago to 6.4%. Meanwhile, Single Tenant Warehouse assets have ticked up by 10 basis points from one year ago.
After three consecutive quarterly increases, Industrial sector transaction volumes fell in Q1 2022 to $33.91 billion from $77.0 billion in Q4 2021. Still, volume is above the 22.6 billion registered in Q1 2021.
On a per square foot basis, Industrial sector asset prices climbed by 6.5% quarter-over-quarter to $139 per square foot. Momentum in the sector has remained strong throughout the pandemic recovery, with Industrial assets prices climbing by 21.0% over the past year.

8. BUILDER CONFIDENCE

Higher construction costs continue to take a toll on builder confidence, according to recent data by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes dropped two points to 77 in April, its fourth consecutive monthly decline.
The current sales conditions portion of the index fell two points to 85, while the subindex tracking the traffic of prospective buyers posted a six-point decline to 60. Sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 73 following a 10-point drop in March.
Builders report a drop in sales traffic and sales conditions that fell to their lowest levels since summer 2021. Driving the decline are persistent supply chain issues alongside rapidly rising interest rates while rising home prices tamper demand in entry-level markets. Mortgage rates have risen by 1.9% since the start of the year.

9. SMALL BUSINESSES RAISING PRICES

According to a recent survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, roughly 40% of small businesses in the US plan to raise sales prices by 10% or more in the near future as inflation continues to rage across the economy.
The survey, which was conducted between April 14th and April 17th among 540 small business owners, shows that over two-thirds of respondents intend to raise their prices within the next three months. Roughly half of the firms are planning increases of 4% to 9%.
Nine-in-ten firms in the survey indicated that they’ve already had to raise prices in order to account for rising costs. 62% say that inflation is having a “substantial” impact on their business, with another third indicating a “moderate” impact. None of the respondents claimed that inflation was having “no impact.”

10. WORKFORCE CONFIDENCE INDEX

LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Survey reports that so far in 2022, the cities of Nashville, Greenville (SC), and Louisville outperform all other metros in workforce optimism.
The study, which constructs an index based on the responses of nearly 35,000 US professionals, reports that seven of the top-ten spots on their list were in the Southeastern corner of the US—another accolade of the region’s recent outsized economic performance.
Miami and Greensboro (NC) round out the top five, followed by Salt Lake City, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Hampton Roads (VA), and the Raleigh-Durham area. Each of the top three metros registered a score of 50 and above compared to the nationwide average of 41.
Driving the numbers are a series of factors. Nashville has benefited from a population influx alongside large investments by companies like Amazon and a booming healthcare sector. Greenville has become a growing hub for automobiles, with a large regional footprint by BMB alongside others. Louisville has benefited from a more diverse economy, with significant footprints from healthcare, manufacturing, retailing, financing, lodging, and transportation/warehousing.

SUMMARY OF SOURCES

(1) https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022-advance-estimate
(2) https://americas.uli.org/spring-economic-forecast-2022/
(3) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-major-wall-street-bank-to-call-for-a-recession-now-sees-clear-outside-risk-it-could-be-more-severe-11650993784
(4) https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/downloads
(5) https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/downloads
(6) https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/downloads
(7) https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/downloads
(8) https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/04/housing-market-at-inflection-point-as-builder-confidence-continues-to-fall/
(9) https://assets.nfib.com/nfibcom/Inflation-Survey-FINAL.pdf
(10) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/feeling-good-10-us-metros-top-all-rivals-workforce-george-anders/COMMERCIAL