Denise Hance joined SVN | Vanguard as Operations Director in March of 2018. Denise possesses extensive expertise in Operations Management and holds a PHR Certification in Human Resources. Denise is a Southern California native began her career more than 25 years ago in the field of Human Resources and later expanded into Operations Management in the Construction and Real Estate.
Before joining SVN | Vanguard, Denise served as Operations Director at Main + Main, Inc., where she played a key role on the firm’s executive team. Denise was responsible for overseeing all operations including production, finance, marketing and process development.
Jon Davis currently serves as a Senior Vice President at SVN Vanguard. Jon and his team have extensive experience in a wide variety of real estate transactions including 1031 exchanges, country-wide; and retail shopping centers, office buildings, industrial buildings and multi-family investment sales and leasing throughout Southern California. Jon also works with developers locating infill locations throughout Southern California. Jon has established himself as a recognized expert focusing on providing his clients with the highest level of service. Jon strives to provide his clients with the most valuable real-time information in the marketplace.
Jon is originally from Saint Paul, Minnesota. After high school, he moved to Orange County, CA to attend Chapman University. Jon graduated with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Business Administration with emphases in Entrepreneurship and Marketing all while being part of the national fraternity, Phi Gamma Delta. In December of 2014 Vanguard Commercial joined SVN, previously SVN, as the Orange County franchise. Jon enjoys playing and watching all sporting events and lives in Anaheim Hills with his wife, two son’s and dog.
SVN Corporate Awards –
-President’s Circle, 2019. Ranked 34th among advisors in the SVN Corporate network, totaling more than 1,650 advisors
-President’s Circle, 2018. Ranked 50th among advisors in the SVN Corporate network, totaling more than 1,650 advisors
-Partners Circle, 2017. Ranked 26th among advisors in the SVN Corporate network, totaling more than 1,600 advisors
-Achiever’s Award, 2015. Jon was one of 78 advisors across the SVN Corporate network, totaling more than 1,300 advisors, to receive the Achiever’s award.
SVN Vanguard Awards –
Top Producer – 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015
Sale Specialties
Multifamily/Apartment
Retail
Industrial
Office
Land
Property Management
Medical Office
Lease Specialties
Office
Retail
Industrial
Tenant Representation
Fernando Crisantos serves as a Senior Vice President who specializes in the sale and lease of commercial properties Orange County and general Santa Ana region including, but not limited to, Downtown Santa Ana, the Civic Center Area, and Industrial zoned areas. Throughout his commercial real estate career, Fernando has built client relationships with Portola Coffee Roasters, Suavecito Pomade Inc., Bascom Group, Black Sheep GCB, Dunkin Donuts, Five Guys, Red Rock Realty Investments, Ryan Chase ( S&A Properties), and many other individual investor/developer/owners.
Sale Specialties
Multifamily/Apartment
Retail
Industrial
Office
Lease Specialties
Office
Retail
Industrial
Miscellaneous
Tenant Representation
Product Council
Retail
Office
Multifamily
Single Tenant Investments
Industrial
Leasing
Medical Office
Ms. Calabrano is a Vice President of Investment Sales at SVN Vanguard specializing in Retail, Office, and Industrial. Kim started her commercial real estate career in 1997 with The Staubach Company, owned and operated by Roger Staubach. As a successful tenant advocate, Kim represents tenants in office and industrial properties. She’s negotiated multiple large headquarters leases as well as regional office and industrial transactions for her clients, including William Hezmalhalch & Nextel’s Corporate Headquarters. Her commitment to each client and tenacious, creative attitude toward fulfilling client needs continues to bring Kim long-term success. She has completed assignments nationwide ranging in size from 8,000 to 120,000 SF for any single transaction.
Ms. Calabrano’s more than 20 years of commercial real estate market experience adds value to her clients. Kim has proven to be highly capable in the following services: local, regional, or headquarters leases or purchases, Office, Industrial, and Retail sales and Investment purchases; land acquisition and disposition; and multi-city site selection.
Before becoming a Vice President at SVN Vanguard, Ms. Calabrano served as Director of Real Estate for Atlas Properties in Southern California. In her previous position, Kim handled all aspects of the leasing components in Atlas’ portfolio, with their largest asset being 340, 000 square feet. Ms. Calabrano possesses a well-rounded understanding of lease and sale transactions.
Ms. Calabrano’s strengths include her ability to navigate complex situations, anticipate and plan for future needs, follow direction from clients, present and implement creative solutions, provide comprehensive and compelling financial strategies, streamline delivery, and provide outstanding results all while delivering consistent, high level service to her clients.
Kim Calabrano’s client list includes but is not limited to; KPMG, Global Imaging Systems, William Hezmalhalch, Gart Sports, Nextel, John Torano and Sons, BNSF Railroad, Domino’s, Nissan, Vision Event Entertainment, AutoZone, Famsa, AutoNation, Pacific Cardiovascular Associates, Alamo, Lumber Liquidators, BBI Source Scientific, Tricor, Inter-Valley Health Plan, H & R Block, Alamo Rental Cars, Rising Stars, GHH Ministries, BJJ MMA Fitness, and Bahama Golf … to name a few.
Sharon Browning is a Senior Investment Advisor with SVN Vanguard in Orange County, California. Sharon specialized in retail and shopping center investment sales throughout Southern California. Sharon began her commercial real estate career in 1981 and has since gained vast experience in shopping center management, leasing and sales. Sharon provides commercial real estate investment analysis for her growing list of private individual, institutional, and corporate investors.
Before becoming a part of SVN in 2003, Sharon was principal of Browning Commercial Properties located in San Juan Capistrano, CA. Browning’s extensive commercial real estate expertise includes providing services for key financial institutions such as Northern Trust, Sanwa Trust, United California Bank, Key Bank, and Bank of the West. Sharon’s client list includes U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Services, Navy Federal Credit Union, Mission Hospital, Lucky Stores, Albertsons, Stater Brothers, PETCO, Subway, Quizno’s, Starbucks, Boston Market, and Rite Aid.
Sharon’s sale transactions include Albertsons anchored center in Casper, Wyoming; Silverado Plaza in Las Vegas, Nevada; Las Hadas Office Complex in San Juan Capistrano, California; Mariposa Plaza in Fountain Valley, California; Brookhurst Town Center in Westminster, California; Landmark Plaza in Laguna Beach, California; Rite Aid in Fresno, California; Bishop Apartments in Santa Ana, California; Wells Fargo in Upland, California, and Bewley Garden Apartments in Santa Ana, California.
Sharon Browning has served on the Board of Directors for Commercial Real Estate Women (CREW) Orange County and a National Delegate. She is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), the Association of Commercial Real Estate (ACRE), a past president of the Industrial Commercial Network (ICN), has attended Mediation Training for Brokers, has completed the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) Leasing and Management of Shopping Centers, and has completed Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) cores classes.
Sale Specialties
Retail
Product Council
Single Tenant Investments
Nicole Astorga is a Senior Vice president at SVN Vanguard and specializes in the acquisition and disposition of multi-family properties throughout San Diego County. Nicole’s hands-on approach is personalized to meet the unique needs of each client, allowing her to provide the highest level of service and an unrivaled transaction experience. Nicole’s intimate knowledge of transaction detail, building operations and market trends sets is what sets her apart in terms of delivering a superior service to her clients.
Sale Specialties
Multifamily/Apartment
Product Council
Retail
Office
Multifamily
Hospitality
Self Storage
Single Tenant Investments
Industrial
Leasing
Cameron Irons has over 25 years of experience in commercial real estate Sales, Leasing, Acquisition, Development and Construction. Today, Cameron is Managing Director at SVN Vanguard and serves as an Orange County Planning Commissioner. He attended Sunny Hills High School in Fullerton and went on to play football for two years at Cal State Fullerton before transferring to Arizona State University in 1986. Cameron currently lives in Fullerton, CA with his wife and two boys.
EXPERIENCE
Extensive entitlement and development experience in many Southern California cities
Specialist in training commercial real estate professionals
Former Real Estate Acquisition Manager for 3M Company
Former Real Estate Sales Manager for Southern Pacific Railroad
Extensive experience in property assembly for many local and national developers
Principal of Vanguard Investment Properties, Vanguard Commercial, Income Property Management and Iron Investments Inc.
Owner of many income properties in California and Arizona
Developer and owner of three restaurant companies in Southern California
EXPERTISE
Extensive experience in a wide variety of real estate transactions including 1031 exchanges, reverse exchanges, apartment sales, shopping center office building and industrial park sales, leasing, easements, conditional use permits, variances, raw land, lender REO’s and environmentally sensitive properties. Expert in working with city redevelopment projects.
Maximum utilization of the latest technology in marketing including the training of others in the use of technology
Expert in negotiating contracts and extensive construction management experience.
Extensive network of relationships throughout Los Angeles and Orange County with property owners, lenders, cooperating brokers, developers, city officials, and corporate property owners and trustees.
Focus on the growth of commercial real estate companies through recruiting, training and mergers and acquisitions
Sale Specialties
Multifamily/Apartment
Retail
Industrial
Office
Property Management
Lease Specialties
Office
Retail
Industrial
Product Council
Retail
Office
Multifamily
Leasing
Property Management
1. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES
• According to the Real Capital Analytics commercial property price index (CPPI), asset prices accelerated through August, growing an average of 1.5% from a month earlier. Moreover, the national all-property type CPPI is up a robust 13.5% year-over-year, marking the fastest annual growth since January 2006.
• Apartment assets continue to lead the way, notching the highest annual growth rate of the four major commercial property types. The apartment CPPI grew 1.6% month-over-month and 14.7% year-over-year through August.
• Retail assets posted the best month-over-month growth rate of the core-four property types, gaining 1.9% between July and August. Measured year-over-year retail prices are up by 12.1%.
• Industrial assets continue to plot a robust and consistent growth path, growing 1.3% and 13.6% month-overmonth and year-over-year, respectively.
• Overall, office price growth is the laggard of the pack. Month-over-month prices grew by 1.3%, and the yearover-year tally sits at 11.2%. Trends are divergent between different office subtypes. Central business district located office assets have yet to establish any positive momentum, continuing to post both month-overmonth (-0.05%) and year-over-year (-3.7%) declines. Meanwhile, suburban office price growth has remained resurgent, growing 1.6% from a month earlier and 14.8% from last year.
2. INDUSTRIAL FORECAST: NAIOP
• NAIOP’s Q3 2021 Industrial demand forecast maintains an overall positive bill of health for the asset class, pointing to a long-term trend of e-commerce adoption that has “no end in sight.”
• For the second half of 2021, NAIOP forecasts that total net absorption for the sector will total 162.6 million square feet, bringing the tally for the annual forecast to 329.5 million square feet. If the forecast holds up, it will represent a sizable 47.4% growth rate from 2020’s mark.
• NAIOP expects that 2022 will be another banner year for the sector, with its current net absorption forecast sitting at 334.6 million square feet.
• The sector’s outperformance is led by coastal port cities, with NAIOP’s report noting that pricing on a per square foot basis is up, vacancy rates are low, and new leases are being signed at a high rate. Despite new and planned deliveries rising to higher marks than in years past, demand continues to outpace supply, sustaining a positive outlook for net absorption trends.
3. INDUSTRIAL: YARDI MATRIX
• Trepp recently released the results of its inaugural CRE Market Survey, noting that commercial real estate professionals are both hopeful as well as concerned over structural shifts.
• 90% of the survey respondents expect that office vacancy and effective rents will continue to lag pre-pandemic levels over the next six months. Similarly, 80% of respondents believe that retail occupancy will trail pre-pandemic levels for the next six months.
• On the more optimistic side of the spectrum, 62% and 74% of respondents anticipate that multifamily occupancy and rents would be above pre-pandemic levels in six months, respectively.
• Asked about the effects of regulatory policy in the next 3-4 months (57.9%), new tax policy by April 2022 (63.9%), and interest rate policy (51.7%), a majority of respondents believe the impacts will be broadly negative to CRE.
4. SCOTUS EVICTION MORATORIUM DECISION
• On August 26th the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the CDC’s national eviction moratorium, ending protections that had been in place for most renters for much of the pandemic.
• The moratorium was authorized by Congress in the CARES Act of March 2020 but has since expired and resumed by the CDC to prevent a spike in homelessness during the public health crisis. It was then extended by Congress in late-2020, expired again, and temporarily renewed again by the CDC, culminating in legal challenges to the order. The SCOTUS decision comes roughly three weeks after the most recent extension, which paused evictions in regions of the United States with “high” and “substantial” coronavirus spread through October 3rd.
• While the protections have been credited with preventing a wave of evictions during the pandemic, with many renters strained by COVID’s economic impact, the moratorium has also been criticized for leaving landlords left saddled with the financial consequences of unpaid rents. Despite nearly $47 billion in rental assistance approved by Congress over the past year, less than 10% of the funds have reached landlords.
5. WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC FORECAST
• In recent days the White House has updated its projections for both inflation and economic growth over the next couple of years, forecasting that during 2021, both will reach their highest levels since the early 1980’s.
• According to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) real-GDP is expected to reach 7.1% in 2021, an increase from the 5.2% growth-rate that Administration officials projected earlier this year. To some degree, the upward revision follows the implementation of the $1.9 American Rescue Plan, which sent consumer spending higher, while firms ramp up hiring and investment to meet demand.
Have questions about Orange County commercial real estate? Looking for Orange County commercial properties for sale and lease? Contact SVN Vanguard today.
Summary of Sources:
• https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/cppi (1)
• https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/26/more-americans-now-say-they-prefer-a-community-with-big-houses-even-if-local-amenities-are-farther-away/ (2)
• https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cre-sentiment-survey-executive-summary-hopeful-signs-structural-concerns (3)
• https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/21a23_ap6c.pdf (4)
• https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/msr_fy22.pdf (5)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202107-chart-data.htm (6)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (7)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20210827a.htm (7)
• https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-unemployment-insurance-benefits-did-not-boost-job-growth-july-state-jobs-data-show-a-widespread-recovery/ (8)
• https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf (9)
• https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (10)
1. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES
• According to the Real Capital Analytics commercial property price index (CPPI), commercial property prices maintained their momentum through July, growing an average of 1.2% from a month earlier. Moreover, the national all-property type CPPI is up a robust 11.8% year-over-year, marking the fastest annual growth since 2006.
• Apartment assets continue to lead the way, notching the highest growth of all commercial property types. In July, the apartment CPPI grew 1.6% month-over-month and 13.5% year-over-year, both of which led all other tracked property types.
• Retail assets posted the next best month-over-month growth rate of the core-four property types, gaining 1.2% between June and July. However, measured year-over-year retail prices are by just 7.5%, which remains the lowest mark across the major property types.
• Industrial assets continue to plot a path of robust growth, growing 1.1% and 11.8% month-over-month and year-over-year, respectively.
• Overall, office price growth sits at 1.0% month-over-month and 8.8% year-over-year. However, the story across office subtypes tells bifurcating story. Central business district located office assets have yet to be able to establish any positive momentum, posting price declines of -0.1% month-over-month and -4.6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, suburban office price growth has remained strong, growing 1.3% from a month earlier and 11.7% from last year.
2. SHIFTING HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES
• According to new survey research from Pew Research Center, an increasing share of Americans are willing to live further away from urban amenities if it means that they can live in larger homes.
• Given two options, large homes with few urban amenities or small homes with many walkable amenities, the U.S. was almost evenly split the last time Pew asked this question in September 2019. Two years ago, 53% preferred the large home vs. 47% who preferred urban settings.
• In the July 2021 edition of the survey, a lopsided 60% preferred the option of large homes with few walkable amenities compared to 39% who preferred smaller homes in urban settings.
• Measured across every subset of race, age group, political affiliation, and educational attainment, the directionality of results were the same, with every group observing a preferential shift toward larger housing options with few urban amenities.
• The permanence of COVID accelerated migration patterns will be a developing story to watch in the years to come. However, a desire by employers to get their workforce back into the office is leading to optimism for a post-COVID reversion back to urban life. At the same time, WFH accessibility tools and greater employer-comfortability with WFH may contribute to a long-term shift toward remote work adoption.
3. TREPP CRE SENTIMENT REPORT
• Trepp recently released the results of its inaugural CRE Market Survey, noting that commercial real estate professionals are both hopeful as well as concerned over structural shifts.
• 90% of the survey respondents expect that office vacancy and effective rents will continue to lag pre-pandemic levels over the next six months. Similarly, 80% of respondents believe that retail occupancy will trail pre-pandemic levels for the next six months.
• On the more optimistic side of the spectrum, 62% and 74% of respondents anticipate that multifamily occupancy and rents would be above pre-pandemic levels in six months, respectively.
• Asked about the effects of regulatory policy in the next 3-4 months (57.9%), new tax policy by April 2022 (63.9%), and interest rate policy (51.7%), a majority of respondents believe the impacts will be broadly negative to CRE.
4. SCOTUS EVICTION MORATORIUM DECISION
• On August 26th the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the CDC’s national eviction moratorium, ending protections that had been in place for most renters for much of the pandemic.
• The moratorium was authorized by Congress in the CARES Act of March 2020 but has since expired and resumed by the CDC to prevent a spike in homelessness during the public health crisis. It was then extended by Congress in late-2020, expired again, and temporarily renewed again by the CDC, culminating in legal challenges to the order. The SCOTUS decision comes roughly three weeks after the most recent extension, which paused evictions in regions of the United States with “high” and “substantial” coronavirus spread through October 3rd.
• While the protections have been credited with preventing a wave of evictions during the pandemic, with many renters strained by COVID’s economic impact, the moratorium has also been criticized for leaving landlords left saddled with the financial consequences of unpaid rents. Despite nearly $47 billion in rental assistance approved by Congress over the past year, less than 10% of the funds have reached landlords.
5. WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC FORECAST
• In recent days the White House has updated its projections for both inflation and economic growth over the next couple of years, forecasting that during 2021, both will reach their highest levels since the early 1980’s.
• According to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) real-GDP is expected to reach 7.1% in 2021, an increase from the 5.2% growth-rate that Administration officials projected earlier this year. To some degree, the upward revision follows the implementation of the $1.9 American Rescue Plan, which sent consumer spending higher, while firms ramp up hiring and investment to meet demand.
Have questions about Orange County commercial real estate? Looking for Orange County commercial properties for sale and lease? Contact SVN Vanguard today.
Summary of Sources:
• https://app.rcanalytics.com/#/trends/cppi (1)
• https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/26/more-americans-now-say-they-prefer-a-community-with-big-houses-even-if-local-amenities-are-farther-away/ (2)
• https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/cre-sentiment-survey-executive-summary-hopeful-signs-structural-concerns (3)
• https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/21a23_ap6c.pdf (4)
• https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/msr_fy22.pdf (5)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202107-chart-data.htm (6)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (7)
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20210827a.htm (7)
• https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-unemployment-insurance-benefits-did-not-boost-job-growth-july-state-jobs-data-show-a-widespread-recovery/ (8)
• https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf (9)
• https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (10)
By Les Shaver | February 12, 2021 at 05:07 AM
A migration from cities could push growth in the land market.
In a Gallup survey conducted at the end of 2020, 48% of Americans said they would choose to live in a town (17%) or rural area (31%) rather than a city or suburb if able to live anywhere they wished. In 2018, 39% thought a town or rural area would be ideal.
People are also less interested in living in a suburb, with that percentage dropping down six percentage points to 25%.
If people really do want to leave cities and suburbs and they have a work situation that allows them to move, land prices could rise in exurbs and rural areas.
“I think the [land] market will grow at a much more rapid pace,” says Omar Eltorai, market analyst at Reonomy.
Land has traditionally been viewed as an alternative investment. While Eltorai doesn’t think the land market will necessarily go mainstream, he does believe it will get more attention. If institutions move into the space, it could speed up changes.
“The movement of institutions into this space are likely to speed up consolidation that’s already been underway,” Eltorai says. “The number of farm owners really has been declining, but that’s not a news story. It has been happening for decades.”
What hasn’t been happening for decades are advances in agricultural technology that will help increase yield. A lot of this technology centers around identifying the best soil for growing crops.
“It’s almost like portfolio optimization,” Eltorai says. “They’re doing a lot of optimization, whether it’s crop rotations or harvest schedules.”
The advances in agricultural technology and more institutions getting involved in land could mean less land is needed to produce food and more consolidation occurs in the land market.
“If institutional money managers want to get involved here, that rate of consolidation could accelerate even further,” Eltorai says.
Environmental concerns could make land even more attractive and provide investors with new ways to monetize the asset.
“There is a new potential income stream, and that potential income stream will ultimately be increasing the value of land and anything that’s essentially grown on it,” Eltorai says.
Eltorai expects to see the carbon markets grow as ESG factors increasingly come into focus. As this happens, businesses will more fully consider their environmental impact, either on their own or because they’re forced to by consumer demand or regulatory requirements.
“The growth of these carbon markets create new potential sources of income for productive land, such as cropland and forest, which plays a key role in capturing and storing carbon,” Eltorai says. “While this new potential income stream will likely not be enough to replace the primary use of the land, it will serve as yield enhancement for these properties.”
Regardless of what motivates the big money to get into the land market, Eltorai thinks its arrival is almost inevitable.
“Some of the big asset managers have been making rather vocal directional calls about what the new green economy would look like,” he says. “So, I think that the new market will form because more of the big money is going to be focused on it, requesting it and requiring it.”
Originally posted on GlobeSt.com.
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